ET]. Again, with the recovery from the Pandemic-driven collapse still flub-a-dubbing, continued extraordinary Monetary and Fiscal Stimulus likely will continue well into 2023, despite Financial-Market huffing and puffing to the contrary, and bi-furcated FOMC happy hype. (5) April 25th (Census Bureau). (18) March 21st to 22nd (FOMC). Despite political hype to the contrary, such is helping to accelerate the pace of domestic Inflation. Given a moribund, underlying U.S. Economy, raising rates further [as had been heavily jawboned and promised by the Fed Chairman, among other FOMC members, until the most-recent March 2023 FOMC] likely will only exacerbate deteriorating economic conditions, without providing any meaningful inflation relief. Manufacturing Sector Has Never Recovered Pre-Great Recession Peak Levels Tax gap program summary findings | Australian Taxation Office THIS WEEKS PENDING DAILY UPDATE COVERAGE OF FOMC AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY (Monday, May 1st to Friday, May 5th): (Monday) March 2023 Construction Spending will be covered Tuesday, (Late Wednesday and Thursday) May 2023 FOMC Meeting, (Thursday) March 2023 Real Merchandise Trade Deficit, (Friday) April 2023 Employment and Unemployment. The aggregate Real Annual Merchandise Trade Deficit for 2022 was unrevised at -1,320.2 Billion Chained (2012) Dollars, again, its worst showing in history. (9) April 14th, (Federal Reserve Board). The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. John Williams, founder of ShadowStats, calculates inflation using the same methodology that the government used to have for calculating the consumer price index (CPI). During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. Alternate Gross Domestic Product Chart. Measured against its Pre-Pandemic level, 4q2022 Real GDP had gained 5.03% [previously 5.06% and 5.11%]. Bureau of Labor Statistics Reveals It Cannot Measure the CPI Properly, At Present During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. The FOMC announced in its March 22nd Press Release: Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Money Supply Charts - Shadowstats.com Economic Recovery Is Not as Close as Hyped by the Consensus Outlook Nonetheless, January 2021 CPI-U Annual Inflation Hit a Soft, Ten-Month High of 1.4%, Boosted by Gasoline Prices, but Constrained by Mixed Food and Core Inflation That revised February inflation of 16.1% was much higher than the year-to-year nominal growth of 5.3% in parallel February Construction Spending, resulting in an unrevised, inflation adjusted, real year-to-year decline of 9.5% (-9.5%) in February 2023 [See extended comments in later Note (16)]. That said, there have numerous stories in recent months of misreported, headline employment gains. To ensure that our results are as robust as possible we use multiple sources to estimate its overall size, including data from the ABS, the Black Economy Taskforce (BETF), and the Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission (ACIC). 1461 soon. Aside from some short-term reporting gimmicks, Payroll Employment probably still is the highest-quality economic statistic published by the U.S. Government, at present, given current data and the reporting-compromised conditions of a still-evolving Pandemic/ post-Pandemic environment. Nonetheless, the quality of government reporting has deteriorated sharply in the last couple of decades. Alternate Inflation Charts - Shadowstats.com The recent string of extreme FOMC rate hikes certainly has not. Inflation is already in the double digits, according to ShadowStats Recessions are measured only from Peak-to-Trough, while Recoveries are measured from Trough-to-Regaining-the-Pre-Recession-Peak (timing not formally called by the NBER), which is far from being at hand, despite relative strength in some major numbers such as the GDP. Explored in the pending Commentary, the U.S. economy is and has been much weaker than advertised, not overheating, and the soaring inflation, which is much worse than headlined, again, primarily is being driven by the Feds excessive Money and Liquidity creation, not by an overheating economy, in a policy conundrum previously noted here by ShadowStats. 1461. Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen did not describe in her Opening Message for 2021, as she had in 2020, and as her recent predecessors had done, that the current Fiscal Path was Unsustainable. Yet that concept still appeared early in the Opening Summary: The debt-to-GDP ratio was about 100 percent at the end of FY 2021 [around 122% in November 2022 WJW]. In context of the ever evolving financial, inflation and economic circumstances, ShadowStats should post Commentary No. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell: "We Are a Long Way from Full Recovery" MARCH 2023 FOMC (May 2023 FOMC coverage is pending May 3rd) - The Federal Reserves March 2023 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the targeted Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points [0.25%] for second period, largely as expected, slowed from the 0.50 basis point upside rate hike in December 2022, and the previous 0.75 basis point increments, to a new range of 4.75% to 5.00%. Part I --BOTTOM LINE Systemically Dangerous and Perilous FOMC Activity is Likely in the Week Ahead. (12) April 13th (Bureau of Labor Statistics). In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. ShadowStats publishes "alternate" measures of inflation and pretends to do so by employing the methods the statistics bureau used to employ, that is, by ignoring the fact that we consume . For the Second Straight Month, Payrolls Declined Year-to-Year by 6.0% (-6.0%) Congress keeps delaying U.S. Government Shutdowns, with continual increases in and extensions to the Debt Ceiling, amidst ongoing political games. Apparently, neither has the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as detailed in an article by BLS economists John Greenlees and . As previously reviewed, the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its targeted Fed-Funds Rate by a minimal 0.25%, to 5.00%, citing hopes that the Banking-System Crisis would dampen the Economy and the FOMC-driven Inflation. The initial headline annualized quarterly estimate of inflation-adjusted First-Quarter 2023 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed doubly negative patterns of activity. Despite a small monthly narrowing in the headline March 2023 Unemployment Rate, details remained consistent with an unfolding recession. ARCHIVES - VIEWING EARLIER COMMENTARIES. GENERAL COVERAGE: Again, on the Inflation front, it is the bloated Money Supply and gasoline price disruptions that are driving or affecting higher inflation, at present, not an overheating economy. [Again, the E-Mail Updates are available to you as part of both new and existing regular subscription; just request it by e-mail from johnwilliams@shadowstats.com .]. The response to those writings (the Primer Series available at the top-center of this page) was so strong that we started ShadowStats.com (Shadow Government Statistics) in 2004. ET). March 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods -- For fourteen consecutive quarters, through First-Quarter 2023, Real New Orders for Durable Goods (deflated by the Durable Goods PPI, and net of the volatile Commercial Aircraft orders), never has recovered its Third-Quarter 2019 Pre-Pandemic Peak activity. Understate inflation and you end up overstating the Real or inflation-adjusted level of growth in GDP. Shadowstats.comis a website that analyzes and offers alternatives to government economic statistics for the United States. Honkai: Star Rail Trailblazer build guide | PC Gamer Permits up strongly but it's all apts inSouth. Financial Market Turmoil Is Just Beginning, Key Monthly Economic Numbers Turned Negative Anew in Fourth-Quarter 2020 John Williams, founder of Shadow Government Statistics, . "John" Williams was born in 1949. Underlying headlines of better-quality U.S. economic numbers, reviewed here in Part II [see Points (1) to (18)], suggest that the United States has been in Recession since First-Quarter 2022, allowing for the political games played with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve depletion, which otherwise also accounted for the headline boost in Second-Half 2022 (Third- and Fourth-Quarter 2022) GDP growth. If you are not a Subscriber, and wish to be, see the next paragraph. Consumer Inflation: Official vs ShadowStats - BMG Current U.S. Economy Remains Far from a Full Recovery HEADLINE ECONOMIC, INFLATION AND MONETARY COVERAGE OF THE LAST MONTH AND OTHER KEY NUMBERS: (1) April 28th (University of Michigan). Indeed, setting up accelerating inflation or hyperinflation, current extreme Monetary and Fiscal stimuli likely will be expanded, not reduced. Government will not lift welfare payments despite recommendation - as The headline March 2023 Monetary Base, jumped by 4.7% month-to-month to a seven-month high, as the FOMC fed emergency funding into Reserve Balances with Federal Reserve Banks, at a time of systemic liquidity concerns. 1438, subsequent missives including particularly No. Those details are posted and graphed on the Alternate Data Tab. The initial headline annualized quarterly estimate of inflation-adjusted First-Quarter 2023 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed doubly negative patterns of activity. SHADOWSTATS SUBSCRIPTIONS Economic and financial issues raised here are reviewed more extensively, along with exclusive graphs, and expanded economic, financial market and monetary assessment in subscriber-only Commentaries [monthly going forward], and more frequently on a timely basis in the subscriber-only e-mails of daily changes in the DAILY UPDATE (as the news breaks, see the prior paragraph).